Photo courtesy GISUser.com.

I recently read an article over at the Duke Chronicle that discussed the link between global warming and hurricanes and, more importantly, the inability to link global warming and hurricanes.  The article says that Hurricane Ike reignited the debate of whether or not a link exists between hurricanes and climate change.  Having done my own study on the connection between tropical systems and temperature, I can tell you that I didn’t see any connection.  Activists, however, see things differently.  Al Gore recently tried to link the two, citing higher temperatures that cause more ocean water to evaporate, leading to stronger storms.

I’ve written many posts in the past that outlined the debate over hurricanes and global warming.  From insurance rates going up for those living along the coast because of global warming to genuine debates over the impact of climate change on tropical storms.  It comes as no surprise to skeptics of climate change that no one really knows whether or not hurricanes and global warming can be linked.  It’s a big guessing game as computer models just don’t possess the ability to model every single element of the atmosphere and derive accurate results.

Let’s take a look at how the debate has shaped up so far this year:

In January of this year, it was anticipated that global warming may cut the number of US hurricane hits.  Also, global warming suppresses hurricanes.

In February of this year, it was determined that a warmer ocean could reduce the number of Atlantic hurricane landfalls.

In April, experts reiterated that warming is not a factor in hurricanes.  Then MIT scientist Kerry Emanuel, who previously believed in a global warming-hurricane link, backed off his theory.

In May, an article surfaced that continued to emphasize that as the planet warms, there will be fewer hurricanes.  But in June, the 2008 hurricane season was predicted to be very active.  This was an update to the previous forecast, which called for a total of seven hurricanes in 2008.

In July, MIT researchers determined that global warming causes a decrease in hurricanes.  And finally just yesterday a new paper revealed that tropical system count and solar activity may be linked.

In the article from the Duke Chronicle, a researcher interviewed said most global warming and hurricane forecasting is done with computer models and their results are inconclusive.  He continued to say that the 2004 and 2005 seasons are considered the most intense by historical standards, but there is not enough evidence to blame global warming for the cause.

From all of the posts I’ve written this year on the subject from news articles combined with scientific reports and expertise, it seems the debate between hurricanes and global warming is over.  However, a door has opened for the anthropogenic climate change crowd:  instead of blaming global warming for hurricane count, climate change can be blamed for an increase in storm intensity instead.  From the Duke Chronicle article:

David Enfield, a meteorologist at the Hurricane Research Division at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said although global warming causes the environment to be less favorable for development of hurricanes in general, the maximum potential internal energy of each hurricane is greater.

While this has already been refuted, it’s the next logical step in the evolution of blaming something - anything - on climate change to keep the dream alive, at least for those doing the dreaming.

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